Now back to Middle East.
There is a cover story in The Economist July 22nd – 28th 2006 on the Middle East Crisis. Among many media coverage and analysis on the Israel/Lebanon conflicts, this article sticks with me. I am still sorting out my online access issue with them, therefore can not post the entire commentary here. I typed part of the article (excuse me if there are any typos in it)
"The Economist's primary focus is world news, politics and business. It's known for taking a strongly argued editorial stance on many issues. It does not print by-lines identifying the authors of articles. In their own words: It is written anonymously, because it is a paper whose collective voice and personality matter more than the identities of individual journalists." (from wikipedia)
Given the brief introduction of The Economist, please note that the article may present a strong opinion and it’s not neutral. Now on with the article…
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The Accidental War
--A pointless war that no one may have wanted and no one can win. It should stop now.
The war that has just erupted apparently without warning between Israel and Lebanon looks miserable familiar. The wanton spilling of blood, the shattering of lives and homes, the flight of refugees: it has all happened in much the same way and just the same places before. In 1982 an Israeli government sent tanks into the heart of Beirut to crush the “state within a state” of Yasser Arafat and his Palestine Liberation Organization. A quarter of a century later, Israel’s air force is pulverizing Lebanon in order to crush the state within a state established there by Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Iranian-inspired “Party of God”. That earlier war looked at first like a brilliant victory for Israel. Arafat and his men had to be rescued by the Americans and escorted to exile in faraway Tunis. But Israel’s joy did not last. The war killed thousands of Palestinian and Lebanese civilians, along with hundreds of Israeli and Syrian soldiers. It brought years of misery to Lebanon- and, of course, no peace in the end to Israel. The likeliest outcome of this war is that the same futile cycle will repeat itself.
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This is madness, and it should end. It is madness because the likelihood of Israel achieving the war aims it has set for itself is negligible. However much punishment Mr Olmert inflicts on Hezbollah, he can not force it to submit in a way that its leaders and followers will perceived as a humiliation. Israel’s first invasion of Lebanon turned into its Vietnam. It is plainly unwilling to occupy the place again. But airpower alone will never destroy every last rocket and prevent Hezbollah’s fighters from continuing to send them off. No other outside force looks capable of doing the job on Israel’s behalf. At presents, the only way to disarm Hezbollah is therefore in the context of n agreement Hezbollah itself can be made to accept.
George Bush is in no rush to rescue Hezbollah. And why, he must wonder, should he? This organization killed hundreds of American marines in 1983. It is part of an alliance, consisting also of Iran, Syria and Hamas, working against America’s interests and friends. Pro-American governments, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, bluntly blame Hezbollah for this latest wasteful war. Israel is asking for more time, perhaps another week or two, to complete its demolition of Hezbollah’s arsenal and create a new order in Lebanon. Though Condeleezza Rice, Mr Bush’s secretary of state, says she is bound for the region, there is no concealing the American temptation to dawdle.
Hurry, please
That is a mistake. Hezbollah can not be uprooted. It is not going formally to surrender. Its past struggle against Israel has won it the fierce loyalty of many Lebanese Shias, and its present one will add to their number even if it comes off worse. Israel’s security will not be enhanced by destroying the rest of Lebanon. By weakening the Lebanese state, and its fragile but well-intentioned government, Israel just weakens the already feeble constrains Lebanon tries to impose on Hezbollah’s actions.
What is needed now is a way for both sides to climb down. Israel must get its soldiers back, Hezbollah’s departure from the border area and an undertaking that Hezbollah will not attack again. The Lebanese army or a neutral force should then man the border. Hezbollah needs to be given a way to consent to these changes without losing face. Squaring this will take times, ingenuity and the full engagement of the United States. It will not bring peace to the Middle Best, but it might silence a dangerous new front. America should start its work at once.
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