The New York Times has a long article by "the Bagger" with all his Oscar predictions. You can read it here.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/movies/awardsseason/22osca.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hpI just wanted to excerpt the last few paragraphs for my Heathen friends...
The Broadcast: All Is SubtextJON STEWART He got through his first year as host in 2006 with élan. Expectations are lower this year because the writers’ strike left less time to prepare. Look for Mr. Stewart to cross the line to good effect a time or two.
REMEMBER THE WRITERS’ STRIKE? Well, the actors’ contract is up in June. Will they make nice from the podium or cock the gun with smiles on their faces?
HEATH LEDGER He should have had a long career, making many laps as a presenter and an honoree. This is his year for all the wrong reasons, and you will be hearing his name recalled in memoriam and sadness.
THE COENS Hollywood loves Joel and Ethan Coen, but can the Coens love it back? Probably not.
THANKS FOR NOTHING How is it that the honorees always seem to find time to acknowledge their dog walker, but never manage to turn attention to the people they shared a category with? A quirk of the acting profession that the Bagger has never figured out is why many actors never take the time to dwell for a few seconds on the amazing performances of their peers.
ALL PARTS EQUAL The main reason the awards can tend toward the dreary is that all categories are equal. Makeup and best picture are treated with the same pomp, and each winner receives the same 45 seconds. Dumb.
PEACE PIPE Warring factions from the writers’ strike will smile and act as if nothing ever came between them. Producers will thank writers, writers will thank producers.
AUTHENTIC MOMENT There will be one somewhere in those three hours, but you have to keep your eyes peeled. Could be a surprise winner losing it à la Halle Berry or some egomaniac hugging himself and his statuette with a little too much ferocity. (Think of James Cameron and “Titanic.”)
BUSH WHACKING Hollywood wants a new director in chief and someone will go there.
ALL THE FIXINGS Because Vanity Fair canceled the after party, the In-N-Out Burger near the Kodak Theater is going to be pretty busy.