Oscar Upsets! Help NEEDED!

[slayers_creek_oth]

Ooh - I have some acting ones.

Lauren Bacall was considered a shoo-in for Best Supporting Actress for "The Mirror Has Two Faces" but lost to...  It escapes me, now.

I think Marisa Tomei winning for "My Cousin Vinny" and Mira Sorvino winning for "Mighty Aphrodite" were considered upsets, too, but I can't remember who they won over.

And wasn't Adrian Brody kind of considered an upset Best Actor win for "The Pianist" a couple years ago?

I'd just like to say, again, how totally done I am with the Academy now.  I swear on my mother's ashes I will never watch that frigging show again.  Nor care about who wins or loses.  (OK, OK, if Jake and Heath and others I love win down the road, I admit I'll probably smile just a little when I hear about it the next day.  But that's IT.  I swear.)

Cool.....thanks Barb

[nakymaton]

There are a couple of Oscar prediction studies (essentially, statistical correlations between various precursors and the Oscar winners), and they give some idea of what might be considered "upsets."

University of Oregon study, submitted for publication in a statistics journal, I think:
http://lcb1.uoregon.edu/ipardoe/oscars/picture.htm
http://lcb1.uoregon.edu/ipardoe/research/working/oscars.pdf
http://lcb1.uoregon.edu/ipardoe/oscars/predict2005.htm

An "Index of Oscar worthiness" by a Dartmouth economics professor:
http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/andrew.bernard/oscars.htm

These might be good references/links for a Wikipedia article.

- Mel

[vkm91941]

http://www.oscars.org/awardsdatabase/index.html  I think you will find the statistics page very useful on this site as well Chris.

[dmmb_Mandy]

I think Denzel Washington winning best actor over Russell Crowe a few years back was a bit of an upset.

[Ellemeno]

You may already be doing this, Chris, but there are people over at the Classic Film and Oscar Buzz forums at IMDb who seem to know a mighty lot about this stuff, and would be so friggin happy to share their 28 cents with you.

[kirkmusic]

Chariots of Fire was an upset over Reds, On Golden Pond and Raiders of the Lost Ark in 1981.

An American in Paris upset A Streetcar Named Desire and A Place in the Sun in 1951.

Those are the ones that leap to mind.

[FuzzyChanny]

I think that Million Dollar baby winning was an upset, because the Aviator was expected to win.

I was on an Oscar site and it said, when discussing this year's best picture, that, like Million Dollar Baby, it was statistically impossible for BBM not to win. (Ignore the BBM comment, I just mean it was perhaps then not an upset Million Dollar Baby won).