I really think Jennifer Hudson is going to LOSE the Best Sup Actress award, and here's why:
1) that thingy that the Academy hates mirroring the Globes.
2) Jennifer was great with all of her performances when they were connected to singing. However, there were many places when her delivery was disconnected from her dialogue. They were small moments, but they were consistently disconnected moments. Watch it again, and you'll see.
I loved her performance, and I really want her to win the Oscar, but I really don't see it happening based on technicality.
3) Oscar has to always deliver a heartbreaking shoulda woulda coulda Oscar denial...just to let people know they're above public opinion. All signs point to Jennifer this year. They're not feeling as sympathetic to black actors this year...I mean, black actors are soooo 2 years ago (I joke...black man here...just a joke).
Though Eddie Murphy was excellent as the James Brown-based characer, there is a snowball's chance in hell that he'll even be nominated. Danny Glover, who has to be the worst actor of all time (yep, right down there with Ali McGraw), might even be nominated over him if only because he finally delivered his first performance with some semblance of decent acting.