Resurrecting the Movies thread...

[MaineWriter]

I am making my prediction here and now...Sept 21, 2007. In The Valley of Elah will be nominated for Best Picture for the Academy Awards.

And people will howl.

It won't win though.

L

[serious crayons]

It won't win though.

Maybe Lust, Caution will win in a vain attempt to right an old wrong. 

All the reviews I've seen for Elah have been mixed, at best. But then, the same was true of Crash.

[MaineWriter]

Maybe Lust, Caution will win in a vain attempt to right an old wrong. 

Lust, Caution will be nominated for best foreign film, and will win. (Boy, I am full of predictions today, aren't I?)

All the reviews I've seen for Elah have been mixed, at best. But then, the same was true of Crash.

Exactly. Crash was something like 72% at rottentomatoes. Right now Elah is 64%.

Since I am in the mood for predictions today (who knows what has gotten into me!) I predict that 3:10 to Yuma will be nominated for Best Picture, and win. I'm Not There will also be nominated--won't win--but Todd Haynes will for Best Director.

Since all the reviews are raving about Tommy Lee Jones, I bet he will get a best actor nom. Maybe even win, since the movie itself will be shut out. Russell Crowe will be nominated for 3:10 to Yuma. Maybe Christian Bale, too, which is why neither of them will win (since they are in the same movie).

Cate Blanchett will be nominated for best actress for I'm Not There. Maybe she'll win.

Is it going too far out on a limb to predict Ben Foster getting  best supporting actor nom for 3:10 to Yuma?

L

[Kd5000]

Cate Blanchett is reprising a role she performed earlier.  She should have won for Elizabeth.  I wonder if this time, they might get it right and she will have another Oscar.   She's a good actress. The trailer looks very very impressive.  Oh, I wonder if Elizabeth the Golden Age will strike a chord with the Hillary Clinton backers.  Hillary is our Elizabeth. 

Ang Lee won't win best director, but BP, let's hope so. 

[serious crayons]

Leslie, I think your predictions sound very possible!

I was going to say they could nominate Christian Bale for BA and Russell Crowe for BSA, but then where would they put poor Ben Foster? Though he might be hurt by what I consider to be a faux-homophobia (homofauxbia!  ) backlash.

I think 3:10 to Yuma certainly deserves to win BP, and Crowe and Bale both deserve BA nominations. But there are so many good-sounding movies coming out in the next few months -- I can't remember what any of them are at the moment, but I know I've heard of some -- that I think I'll wait to put any money on it.

[oilgun]

Russell Crowe will be nominated for 3:10 to Yuma. Maybe Christian Bale, too, which is why neither of them will win (since they are in the same movie).

Is it going too far out on a limb to predict Ben Foster getting  best supporting actor nom for 3:10 to Yuma?

L

Wow, you really liked 3:10 to Yuma didn't you,lol!  Actors from the same movie are never nominated for the same award because of vote splitting so you have to pick either Russell or Christian for BP   I haven't seen the movie but I'm planning to go this weekend.

I think Viggo will get a nomination for BP for Eastern Promises. 

Perhaps Ryan Gosling for Lars and the Real Girl - I just have a gut feeling about this one.

And definitely Tommy Lee Jones for  In the Valley of Elah.  He'll probably win too.

[serious crayons]

I think Viggo will get a nomination for BP for Eastern Promises. 

Perhaps Ryan Gosling for Lars and the Real Girl - I just have a gut feeling about this one.

And definitely Tommy Lee Jones for  In the Valley of Elah.  He'll probably win too.

These predictions sound right, too, oilgun! I haven't seen Lars, but I loved Ryan Gosling so much in Half Nelson that I wouldn't be surprised if he deserves a BP nomination for something else. And I haven't seen Eastern either, but from everything I've read it sounds like Viggo was great.

Wow, you really liked 3:10 to Yuma didn't you,lol!  Actors from the same movie are never nominated for the same award because of vote splitting so you have to pick either Russell or Christian for BP   I haven't seen the movie but I'm planning to go this weekend.

Let us know what you think!

I guess if I were forced to pick, I'd go with Christian for BA. They were both great, so it would be tough. But I think Christian may have had the more complex role; his character grows in ways that are a little less expected than what happens with Russell's character. But again, they'd both fully deserve the nomination.

So we've already got five good choices, and there's three more months left of the year! But that's so often the case with BAs, an embarrassment of riches.

Whereas for Best Actress, it's the opposite. It always seem like they're kind of casting about for nominees -- which actress found new angles on the adoring wife role? Which played the most convincing hooker?

Needless to say, the problem is not a dearth of good actresses.

[MaineWriter]

There has never been a dual-nominee from the same movie? Ie, best actor with 2 actors from the same film. I thought there were a few of those...guess I need to do some research.

Meanwhile...I didn't think 3:10 to Yuma was great, I thought it was good, but it is the kind of good that might win an Academy Award (when better films don't).

For the best actor thing: maybe Christian Bale for BA for Yuma, and Russell Crowe for American Gangster (not yet released). Could happen!

L

[serious crayons]

There has never been a dual-nominee from the same movie? Ie, best actor with 2 actors from the same film. I thought there were a few of those...guess I need to do some research.

There probably has been, but the studios have learned not to do that because the actors wind up canceling each other out. That is, say that among the X number of people who loved Yuma, half vote for Bale and half vote for Crowe. Meanwhile, 100 percent of the people who loved Eastern Promises vote for Viggo. So the other two lose.

For example, that's probably why, with Brokeback, Jake was nominated for BSA and Heath for BA.

[MaineWriter]

For example, that's probably why, with Brokeback, Jake was nominated for BSA and Heath for BA.

That may be true, but in my mind, Jake was very definitely a supporting actor in BBM. In Yuma, I don't think either Crowe or Bale was in a supporting role.

L