Author Topic: Anyone been to Italy?  (Read 33524 times)

Offline delalluvia

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Re: Anyone been to Italy?
« Reply #90 on: November 05, 2011, 07:04:58 pm »
Ah, let's see.

I went to the main airline website and made a puddle jump reservation.

Tuesday my bank notified me that they charged me twice.
Thursday my bank rep told me that it was on my account twice, but both were still pending.  When they finally went through, I could dispute one.
Today, I call my bank and find out both transactions are gone.  Not reversed, just gone, like they were never there.
I called the airline, they still have my ticket reserved.

 >:( >:(

Now what?

The airline will either charge me again or more likely cancel my ticket and not tell me because I didn't "pay for it".

Offline serious crayons

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Re: Anyone been to Italy?
« Reply #91 on: November 06, 2011, 12:32:57 am »
:laugh:

No, no no, I really really read your posts.

It's just you make statements and then try to qualify them, but to me, the qualifiers don't detract from the original fact.

You did it again here with this:

Yes, more people per year die in cars now, and the fact that there are more cars on the road is one factor. But it's only PART of the reason.

I agree.  It is a factor.  But to me, it's the MAIN factor that the stats are skewed.  To me, nothing else will make plane to car deaths per mile stats comparable until that is adjusted.




Yes, and the way they "adjust" it is by calculating the statistics in deaths per mile rather than deaths per year. Simple math. And so much easier than putting a million more planes in the sky or taking a million cars off the road.




« Last Edit: November 06, 2011, 11:46:34 am by serious crayons »

Offline delalluvia

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Re: Anyone been to Italy?
« Reply #92 on: November 06, 2011, 12:09:40 pm »

Yes, and the way they "adjust" it is by calculating the statistics in deaths per mile rather than deaths per year. Simple math. And so much easier than putting a million more planes in the sky or taking a million cars off the road.

But it's not adjusted.  Deaths per mile based on what?  The current air and car traffic.  And that's already not equitable.

Offline serious crayons

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Re: Anyone been to Italy?
« Reply #93 on: November 06, 2011, 07:34:18 pm »
But it's not adjusted.  Deaths per mile based on what?  The current air and car traffic.  And that's already not equitable.

Yes, deaths per mile based on the current air and car traffic. And guess what! All other things being equal, the deaths per mile would stay the same for each if the air traffic increased enough to equalize them number of plane and car trips. Except all other things wouldn't be quite equal: The sky would be more crowded, so accidents might increase somewhat simply because there are more planes in a limited space and they'd be more likely to crash into each other. That would definitely be cause for concern -- IF the air traffic ever suddenly increased by that amount. It's NOT something to worry about, nor something that affects the stats, if you're flying under current conditions.

So the way to calculate it is not by accidents/deaths per year but by deaths per mile. If you were traveling to Philadelphia, and you could either go by car or by plane, which way would you be more likely to die? And the answer is, by car.

There might be other advantages to going by car: it's cheaper, you see more scenery, it's more comfortable. But safer? No.

But since you're someone who says you're uncomfortable about the safety of flying, you seem very committed to believing that's the more dangerous mode of transportation. And the fact is, you're welcome to believe anything you want.



« Last Edit: November 06, 2011, 09:21:24 pm by serious crayons »

Offline Jeff Wrangler

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Re: Anyone been to Italy?
« Reply #94 on: November 06, 2011, 09:52:08 pm »
Does anybody know whether or not it's true that more accidents involving planes happen on the ground than in the air?  ???

I guess that question doesn't really help here, does it?  8)
"It is required of every man that the spirit within him should walk abroad among his fellow-men, and travel far and wide."--Charles Dickens.

Offline serious crayons

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Re: Anyone been to Italy?
« Reply #95 on: November 06, 2011, 11:53:54 pm »
Does anybody know whether or not it's true that more accidents involving planes happen on the ground than in the air?  ???

I guess that question doesn't really help here, does it?  8)

When you say "on the ground," do you include planes that were in the air until something went wrong, but weren't actually damaged until they made contact with the ground? In that case, I'd say that's definitely true. But if you mean planes that are moving around on the tarmac, then I'd say no.

Just off the top of my head, of course.




Offline Jeff Wrangler

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Re: Anyone been to Italy?
« Reply #96 on: November 07, 2011, 09:59:50 am »
When you say "on the ground," do you include planes that were in the air until something went wrong, but weren't actually damaged until they made contact with the ground?

You mean like jumping out of a plane in flight without a parachute? It isn't the fall that kills you, it's the abrupt stop?

Quote
But if you mean planes that are moving around on the tarmac, then I'd say no.

Yes, I meant planes on the tarmac.
"It is required of every man that the spirit within him should walk abroad among his fellow-men, and travel far and wide."--Charles Dickens.

Offline serious crayons

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Re: Anyone been to Italy?
« Reply #97 on: November 07, 2011, 11:05:59 am »
You mean like jumping out of a plane in flight without a parachute? It isn't the fall that kills you, it's the abrupt stop?

 :laugh: Exactly.

(OT, but I once read an expert column about how, when Spider Man saves a falling Mary Jane in the first Spider man movie, she would have died even if she didn't hit the ground. It's the abrupt stop that's the problem.)

Back to air safety, I think the vast majority of plane deaths involve little private planes. A couple of years ago, a family my sons knew from school lost four members -- father and three sons -- flying a small plane with the father piloting.

But big plane crashes get a lot more publicity and, thus, attention. And as humans we tend to be much more afraid of things that capture our attention.

That same phenomenon explains why parents are more afraid of their child getting kidnapped while walking home from school than of their child getting hurt while riding in a car, even though statistically speaking the latter is far more likely.



Offline Penthesilea

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Re: Anyone been to Italy?
« Reply #98 on: November 07, 2011, 11:57:09 am »
Sorry for OT here, I'll keep it short:

What the hell happened to your avatar, Katherine?
Is it The Mummy Came upon a Bear or sumpn?
I can't make out what it is, even with glasses.


And my attempt at the topic:

Statistics about car crashs vs. plane crashs don't make much difference. Fear isn't always rational (or even mostly not retional). I don't care how few planes crash, I'm just afraid the one I'm sitting in could be the exception of the rule (when it gets shaky, for me it's the turbulances that get me, otherwise I'm doing okay).

Offline serious crayons

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Re: Anyone been to Italy?
« Reply #99 on: November 07, 2011, 01:29:46 pm »
Sorry for OT here, I'll keep it short:

What the hell happened to your avatar, Katherine?
Is it The Mummy Came upon a Bear or sumpn?
I can't make out what it is, even with glasses.

 :laugh:  It's a skullish face made entirely of crayons. I guess it is a little unnerving. I'll try to switch it when I get a chance.
 

Quote
And my attempt at the topic:

Statistics about car crashs vs. plane crashs don't make much difference. Fear isn't always rational (or even mostly not retional). I don't care how few planes crash, I'm just afraid the one I'm sitting in could be the exception of the rule (when it gets shaky, for me it's the turbulances that get me, otherwise I'm doing okay).

Oh, I totally agree. People fear all kinds of things that are statistically unlikely; that particular fear just resonates with them, somehow. When I was a kid, I was terrified that someone was going to break into my parents' house and attack me. Never mind that that had never, ever happened (and hasn't since) in the middle-class suburb where I lived, that the odds against it were astronomical. Every night, I lay there watching the door of my room, waiting in terror for an intruder to appear.

Other people are afraid of snakes, heights, small places, etc.